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Torbat Heydariyeh University of Medical Sciences
Abstract:   (277 Views)
Background: the huge load of infected incoming people in the time of COVID-19 needs to be managed in medical facilities.
Objectives:  estimation of the load extent of the outbreak and design of the facilities accordingly, can help the authorities to be equipped for such challenges.
Methods: The basic reproduction number (R0) was obtained from a random-effects model in meta-analysis procedure. The cumulative death numbers (CDN) was then estimated using the cubic curve estimations, which in turn, was based to estimate the required beds in each country. The shortages of the beds were calculated from the difference of the available and required beds. Finally, a multiple barriers strategy was proposed according to epidemiological parameters to decrease patient’s overload during the outbreaks.
Results: The mean pooled R0 was found to be 3.04 (95%CI: 2.62-3.45). The correlation coefficients for the cubic curve estimations for different countries were 0.97-0.99. From hospital beds shortage standpoint, the results showed that Australia, South Korea, and Turkey are in better position in relative to other countries studied from. However, Italy, Spain, France, USA and UK will experience limitations if no action be taken to prevent COVID-19 from spreading.
Conclusions: If the exponential growth of infection remains for the next weeks, the related authorities should consider much more hospital beds (as well as related supplementary equipment and medical-based staffs) for COVID-19 infected cases. Although, the considerable changes in the medical-based footprints can allocate the side effects of the challenge, it seems that we need to refine our frameworks to prevent or minimize, at least, the live loses.
     
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2021/04/10 | Accepted: 2021/05/24

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